For our new methodology for businessfield exploration, the elements of all three. Strategic foresight is required whenever there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding changes to the relevant future context. Strategic foresight instead, is about being prepared for different. The below 8 steps give you an overall view of the general actions that should be followed when putting together any strategic plan. Sep 24, 2018 jussi leskinen, director of customer experience management and operations at lindstrom, and mika raulas, business designer at roger studio, took the stage to discuss using strategic foresight to design future customer experience. From global futures to strategic foresight for exante research assessment gerald nelson senior research fellow, ifpri theme leader, crp2. This document provides all elements of a full mission statement, including a. Foresight into the process of strategic planning by g.
Bill barton, former center head for american express consumer lending operations, helped me understand this distinction in this way. Foresight as a strategic longterm planning tool for. Common to the various foresight terms referred to above, strategic foresight is a dual purpose task of 1 observing, perceiving, and capturing factors that is likely to induce future changes. In a complex and uncertain world accurate prediction is a fiction. The following research report is based on an adaptation of a common foresight tool.
The concept of strategic foresight has come to dominate contemporary management discourse in recent times with a remarkable upsurge in the number of scholarly papers reporting a positive influence of strategic foresight on innovation. This text is intended as a note for the phd course, strategic foresight in engineering. Preliminary findings of the third foresight exercise were discussed with stakeholders in a workshop on 6 october 2010. A foresight process is systematic and has three related phases, each of which contains some subphases see figure 2. Strategic foresight analysis can help decision makers map the future. Military element of national power is often the immediate default selection. Andy hines in his article, strategic foresight, identifies six critical steps.
Combined with a special contribution by chaly mah, the ceo of deloitte asia pacific, the book carefully balances. Strategic foresight summary of findings strategic foresight is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the federal emergency management agency fema. Five strategic foresight tools to enhance business model. Strategic foresight is not about predictions of the future. A glossary of terms commonly used in futures studies full version. Financing banks and other financial institutions provide money for the production and marketing of products. Strategic foresight information packet basic information on strategic foresight at fema. Sustainable food consumption and production in a resource. Introduction to strategic foresight ik ben freija van duijne.
Strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain a highquality, coherent and functional forward view and to use the. Managing the future the future strategic foresight in the knowledge economy edited by haridimos tsoukas and jill shepherd. Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development. Look for this icon to find more strategic foresight. Horizon scanning in foresight why horizon scanning is only. Among the brics nations brazil, russia, india, china and south. Strategic thinking is a powerful leadership tool that gives organizations the foresight and insight needed to succeed in the long term, especially when applied throughout the organization. Global strategic foresight community reports world.
The book also builds on the concepts of change, the purpose of business, foresight, strategic thinking, strategic planning and innovation to present a holistic view of how these essential elements can be integrated in practice. First, strategic foresight, a discipline i describe in more detail, provides the vitally needed mindsets and frameworks required to plan in uncertainty. Corporate foresight and its effect on innovation, strategic. Strategic foresight offers a foundation in the conceptual and methodological basics of the foresight field, which can be applied to deepen thought around any product, service, indus. Andy hines in his article, strategic foresight, identifies six critical steps to develop the foresight you need to navigate in this rapidly changing environment. Two components are organically linked to strategic foresight. The planning phase comprises preparation and organization of the foresight. Foresight is aimed to provide information for the next budget plans and the basic plan, to generate information about science, technology and society for the public. The role of scenarios in strategic foresight sciencedirect.
Strategic foresight and porters five forces publish your. In line with this, slaugther 17 has introduced the conceptualization of foresight as an organizational ability. Strategic foresight is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the federal emergency management agency fema. Strategic foresight, as a discipline, has been around for decades. Strategic foresight is a set of skills and tools used to explore potential futures, so that you can plan for and take advantage of them. Participants learn the tools of strategic foresight and then have a handson opportunity to build scenarios of their future business environments. Strategic foresight and government to bind themselves into rigid positions.
Nov, 2017 this paper aims to examine the capability of corporate foresight in the organizations and its impacts on innovation, quality of managers strategic decisionmaking and organizational performance in the banking industry of iran. Scenarios became a useful intermediate stage of the analysis and strategy development towards a preferred future. A more robust interagency staff could better plan, resource, and execute nonmilitary elements of national power, reserving the military option for picking the right fight at the right place and not making it the default selection because the nonmilitary elements. Jones tintroduction he purpose of this paper is twofold.
This article is based on content presented at the strategic foresight summit 2018, organized earlier this year by futures platform. This presentation and the strategic foresight playbook were. It was vision that inspired the invention of the automobile. See more ideas about future timeline, futuristic technology and future tech. Strategic foresight october 2019 strategic foresight for.
Nevertheless, there are three areas, which are defined for each system. The book is written in understandable, accessible language. Storage products must be stored and protect ed until they are needed. Kearney 2017 views from the csuite report focused on adapting to disruption. Note for the phd course strategic foresight in engineering. How conservatives abandoned the free market and why liberals should too by james k. Strategic foresight make organizational and career impact. Guidelines for strategic foresight edited by andy hines and peter bishop is the essential handbook for every aspiring analyst and, students of strategic foresight. Integrating strategic thinking into your organization for. Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in. Strategic foresight sf is the ability to create and maintain a highquality, coherent and functional forward view and to use the insights arising in organisationally useful ways. Strategic planning always includes analysis, but it may or may not involve serious foresight on the way to developing a plan, or taking an action. When organizations begin to think strategically, they. Who are the foresight professionals and the end users.
Strategic foresight and its most common tool, scenario planning, have been used successfully at the corporate planning level for decades. Strategic elements operates as a venture builder where it generates ventures and projects from combining teams of leading scientists or innovators in the technology or resources sectors. Time for national narrative construct and strategic foresight 27 march 2019 pakistan is an open state not a security state. Strategic foresight group sfg is a think tank engaged in crafting new policy concepts that enable decision makers to prepare for a future in uncertain times. It presents the main principles of strategic foresight from a practitioners point of view, including an approach by which you can learn about the future and study trends. The aim of the course is to introduce students to the foundation and methods of strategic foresight. Whats your futuresix steps for gaining strategic foresight. In addition to the lack of common definition of strategic thinking, heracleous 1998 notes that there is no common definition of strategic planning or common understanding of the relationship between strategic thinking and strategic planning. Action is then taken to implement the chosen options. Framing, scanning, forecasting, visioning, planning, and. The course is targeting doctoral students within engineering and design who intent to apply elements of strategic foresight or prospective analyses in their research.
Strategic foresight training for an era of accelerating. Causality explains the interrelatedness and interdependency of the elements. It enable us to see and shape a deeply desirable future by making and living by wise strategic commitments in the present. The main phase is the most comprehensive and, in relation to time, the most labourintensive part of the foresight process. Transform the business of your life and the life of your business by jerry wind, colin crook and robert gunther. Elements of national power georgia institute of technology. Strategy, a word of greek origin meaning a military generals knowledge, has been used for centuries yet its sister term, strategic management, is a relatively new concept.
Strategic foresight is generally focused at the mid or longterm time frame. Six eras of foresight practice the foresight guide. In such firms, foresight is an ongoing series of efforts that informs management about possible future states and what is needed to realize these. Strategic foresight for better policies draft scenarios on the future of digital transformation presentation to the public sector foresight network 27 july 2018 by duncan cassbeggs oecd counsellor for strategic foresight. Strategic foresight the contemplation of alternative plausible future contexts for better strategic decisionmaking in the present harnesses these ways of thinking.
Corporate foresight can be expected to be a determinant of the quality of strategic conversation. Strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain a highquality, coherent. Strategic foresight group anticipating and influencing. It illustrates the use of scenarios to expose the common, plausible, elements of the business landscape in order to develop strategic foresight. Interrelatedness is the connection between the elements of the set that make up the system and implies that the system taken as a whole has properties that differ from those of the simple sum of the effects of the individual relationships between pairs of elements. Adam gordon, an instructor on aalto university executive educations strategic foresight program, the problem with forecasting lies not so much in the quality of the data. Strategic foresight training for leaders develop your foresight mindset strategic foresight skills boost success with decisions that have to be made, even in uncertainty and change. The conclusions of the report, which focused on the opportunities and concerns of senior. Pdf strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new. The nine functions of marketing strategic foresight group.
Selling producers function within a free market to sell products to consumers. Our point of departure is the expectation that strategicforesight methods could help to. Whats your futuresix steps for gaining strategic foresight page 2 scanning the second step is scanning. The report is designed to provide an overview of key strategic issues relevant to the future of california communities and museums. Four basic elements of strategic management bizfluent. Foresight can be used to identify emerging new markets and transitions in established markets ahead of the competition and to work out their conclusions regarding strategic choices, market.
In so doing, they can identify strategic threats to avoid or mitigate as well as new opportunities to exploit. Presentation at aair forum, sydney, nov slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising. Using strategic foresight to design the future customer. The second is to demonstrate how foresight disciplines. This is followed by a description of key components for building a more comprehensive strategic foresight system in government and designing successful. Aug 25, 2008 an overview of strategic foresight, and several futures tools that can be used to build a strategic foresight capacity. A quick and clean guide to creating foresight by richard a k lum, strategic foresight. The six ps of strategic foresight using the core thinking types well. A consideration of possible futures alternative futures and of probable futures forecasts, predictions is important to developing a preferred future plan, even the simple mental plans made prior to taking an action. There is power in strategic thinking and it is available to everyone. The six ps of strategic foresight the foresight guide. It is rooted in a provocative, allthingspossible perspective that.
The strategic foresight analysis sfa 2017 report aims to support nato leaderships visualization of the future secu rity environment, which is c haracterized by a rapid rate of. Perhaps due to the novelty of professional foresight at the time, and a backdrop of particularly dramatic social, economic, and technical changes, strategic foresight was taken seriously by business, government, and the public in a way that is yet to be exceeded. The field of interest within the strategic foresight approach is classified in the economical, social, political and technological environment of the corporation identifying new markets, products or technologies. Strategic foresight advice should be broadly based, and wherever possible backed up by empirical evidence, so that it can be contested and debated by others in the policy domain. Theory of and within foresight what does a theory of. Japan has a long tradition in foresight and started separate horizon activities complementary to the set of foresight methods. Strategic elements operates as a registered pooled development fund pdf. While strategic planning is a vital competency for todays leaders as they craft a vision for the future, an equally important leadership competency is strategic foresight to anticipate how this. At the same time, practical application of government foresight in strategic.
Bradley mackay, university of st andrews, scotland, peter mckiernan, university of strathclyde this element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future. A brief overview of strategic foresight workshop slides. The foresight sandbox is a unique, multiday, inperson, learning experience. First, as foresight is a quite ambiguously defined and understood entity, we shortly. Strategic foresight methods in the public and private sectors. The theory and intention is that imagination must be set free to the greatest extent. Strategic foresight is wellestablished in many advanced economies, including the european union, japan and singapore. Peter bishop, chair of the studies of the future program at the university of houston. The full report has now been published and will be discussed at a major conference on transition towards sustainable food consumption and production in a resource constrained world to be held on 45 may 2011 in budapest. As shown in figure 1, strategic thinking focuses on futures options available to an organisation, before decision are made about which options to pursue. Strategic foresight enables leaders to ask better questions about the future, make strategic choices explicit and support the discovery, design and consideration of more and better. Strategic foresight quantitative modeling tools for outreach food security futures conference o first scheduled april 1112, 20 capacity building o to increase range of foresight tools available to users.
Corporate foresight at the strategic research institutes. The elements of the executed foresight process and the links between them are shown in figure 1. Ultimately, strategic foresight aspires to equip governments and societies with the capacity to constantly explore and prepare for the future in order to navigate, adapt, and shape the future through better policies. One key to professionalizing the foresight field is finding better definitions of what strategic foresight. One is to raise awareness of the role of organizational assumptions and prejudices about the future, which underlie much strategic decisionmaking in business.